Poll: How confident do you feel about the future of home performance?

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How confident do you feel about the future of home performance?

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Google doesn't see anything changing:

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=air%20conditioning%2C%20hea...

What makes people optimistic, love to hear...

 

Not too surprising that "home performance" is unfamiliar jargon to the average citizen doing google searches.  Different terms will give different pictures. I layered in "comfort" and "energy". The results vary a lot by region.  Looks like your initial filters might have picked up the global totals.  Chart below is just US (I noticed that results vary widely among English-speaking countries).  Results also vary a lot within the US, with the  "home performance" rating more than twice as high in WA than TX, for example.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=air%20conditioning%2C%20hea...

Words are jargon until they become common. They become common when they refer to something mainstream society has accepted as useful.

I submit that Home Performance will become common when it has proven value in solving problems.

Back to the question, is there anything that makes you optimistic about the future of home performance?

Matt Golden commented on a parody video "Single Pane" a few months back that the 9 year old video is funny again because almost none of the same people are here. THAT IS A MAJOR FREAKING PROBLEM! I starved to death trying to do good insulation contracting (which evolved into Home Performance.)

There are NO viable program-related HP business models that I know of. Programs will not save us.

The critical thing is DEMAND. Until consumers ASK for HP, we are lost in the wilderness. Early adopters don't need proof. They will just try stuff. Early majority needs PROOF. We have none. Show me the serious case studies with real metrics. (I'm close to publishing 11 of them on our projects.)

If we measure and rank, we are much more likely to get the early majority to act. I'd suggest ranking on test in/predicted/test out for both blower door and Energy Use Intensity (EUI in kBTU/sf/yr).

Until that happens, I remain extremely pessimistic about HP. It will be another 40 years in the wilderness. Can we please start measuring and ranking?

I see fixed monthly grid charges continuing to increase while cost per therm/kwh/gallon remain constant.

For years utilities have rolled part of thier fixed costs into the kwh/therm/gallon rates. Not anymore. Our gas company is charging a $33/mo grid connect fee, but sells the gas itself at cost (currently 37 cents per therm).

Look at your "water bill". How much would your bill be with zero use?

Electric company is still at $13/mo customer charge, the rest of the grid maintenance costs are built into the KWH rates. They have already proposed a $26/mo grid connect free and reducing the KWH rates.
Thank you for sharing this trend! Full disclosure, I did NOT ask Bob to post that!

If you have 2 energy meters, which is readily removable and which will we likely always have?

We've seen this trend and use Meter fee savings (often greater than energy savings on our projects) to help people get off natural gas.

We also think that electricity prices will remain stable because renewables create upward price inelasticity.

FF are likely to remain volatile, unpredictable, and a risky decision wrt to new residential infrastructure investment.

Here are the results of the poll: https://polldaddy.com/poll/9473877/?view=results

Be sure to read the thoughtful comments posted there too.

This poll would change on a day to day basis :)

I'm cynical one day and extremely optimistic the next. Talking to true home performance professionals can make me very enthusiastic. However, one phone call with a McMansion Owner immediately crashes me back to earth.

In short, I am excited and scared. These feelings lead to industry change in my humble opinion -- hopefully for the better.

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